據(jù)外電6月24日消息，行業(yè)分析師表示，全球制造業(yè)疲軟拖累了鋁價(jià)，但影響可能是短暫的，因?yàn)榘ㄖ袊趦?nèi)的主要消費(fèi)國實(shí)體市場供應(yīng)緊張。

中國是全球最大的鋁生產(chǎn)國，今年鋁產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到4250萬噸，接近其4500萬噸的年產(chǎn)能。鋁土礦和氧化鋁原料供應(yīng)短缺預(yù)計(jì)將推動(dòng)鋁價(jià)重回上行軌道。

周三LME三個(gè)月期鋁報(bào)價(jià)在2520美元/噸左右，自上月觸及兩年高點(diǎn)2799美元/噸以來已下跌10%。

Uday Patel預(yù)測，全球原鋁市場供應(yīng)過剩約50萬噸，今年鋁價(jià)平均為2450美元/噸。

但他補(bǔ)充說，美國和英國禁止俄羅斯向交易所運(yùn)送金屬，以及紅海航運(yùn)危機(jī)造成的物流障礙，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)收緊。

其他分析師則更為樂觀，預(yù)計(jì)今年將出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)短缺，這一觀點(diǎn)反映在實(shí)物市場溢價(jià)高于倫敦金屬交易所基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格上。

Since late March, the duty-paid aluminum premium in the U.S. spot market has risen 10% to about $440 a tonne, while the duty-paid aluminum spot premium in Europe has risen 30% to around $340 a tonne over the same period.

“The faster growth in spot aluminum premiums in major consuming regions other than China suggests that the physical market continues to improve,” Macquarie analysts said in a report.

Macquarie expects global aluminum production to be about 72 million tons this year, with a supply-demand gap of 960,000 tons. China is expected to have an aluminum supply-demand gap of 2.26 million tons in 2024. This may mean that China’s aluminum imports will increase further.

Data showed that China’s aluminum imports in May increased by more than 60% year-on-year to 310,000 tons.

"Although there is limited upside in the near term, the aluminum market remains tight and LME aluminum prices should rise again once demand accelerates again," said Michael Widmer, an analyst at Bank of America. Michael Widmer expects the average aluminum price to be $3,000 per ton in 2025, with a supply-demand gap of 2.1 million tons. He predicts that the average aluminum price this year will be $2,500, with a supply-demand gap of 800,000 tons.